TSLA Is Having A Bad Afternoon. 

"PatBateman" (PatBateman) 01/25/2018 at 15:00 • Filed to: tesla model 3, Tesla, Elon Musk

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All because CNBC chose to publish a little exposé re: former and current employees talking about production delays. It’s actually pretty salacious. Link after the jump.

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For Sweden > PatBateman 01/25/2018 at 15:04

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Eh, It will recover 3% by next week.

404 - User No Longer Available > PatBateman 01/25/2018 at 15:04

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Market has always been based on emotions of the mass public over bits and pieces of rumours, nothing new.

Why do you think there are stock pick spammers?

PatBateman > For Sweden 01/25/2018 at 15:16

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Probably. The stock is definitely volatile.

Arrivederci > PatBateman 01/25/2018 at 15:19

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Time to buy!

PatBateman > 404 - User No Longer Available 01/25/2018 at 15:20

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SOME of the market is based on emotions. I’d say this is part emotion, part possible problems for Forward P/E forecasts.

Spanfeller is a twat > PatBateman 01/25/2018 at 15:27

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Real issues will come if there’s a recall because of these unskilled techs.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > PatBateman 01/25/2018 at 15:45

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The $800 worth of Tesla stock I bought the week they went public, last I checked, was worth more than $5,000. I wish I’d bought more...

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > 404 - User No Longer Available 01/25/2018 at 15:47

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And of all stocks on the market, Tesla is probably one of those the most buoyed by emotion.

BrianGriffin thinks “reliable” is just a state of mind > PatBateman 01/25/2018 at 15:52

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It’s only down like 2.5%. Ford stock laughs at this puny loss.

TorqueToYield > PatBateman 01/25/2018 at 16:03

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Lots of non-hardware people really don’t get how hardware manufacturing works. It’s cliche but hardware is hard.

Car manufacturing is especially complex and intense.

Project schedules tend to be....flexible...and that’s being generous.

It’s impossible to say how long something is going to take when you’re doing things never done before on top of your typical manufacturing problems.

Quality problems crop up everywhere in manufacturing, they’re solvable.

Tesla is in an enviable position where their customers don’t seem to mind waiting a bit. We’ll see if that continues. It doesn’t mean they have poor product or bad tech or will fail as some internet commenters think.

One of the best investment moves I’ve ever made was buying into Boeing when a small battery fire on a non-essential part in the Dreamliner sent their stock down like 10% in a couple days. The screams of “ZOMG the Dreamliner is a failure!” were pretty hilarious.

PatBateman > Arrivederci 01/25/2018 at 16:05

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I don’t know about all that.

PatBateman > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 01/25/2018 at 16:07

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It’s a paper gain until realized.

Also, no one ever went broke taking a profit.

PatBateman > BrianGriffin thinks “reliable” is just a state of mind 01/25/2018 at 16:09

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They’ve had their worse days. If all that was said was true, Tesla might have more problems than they’ve let on.

We’ll see.

Ash78, voting early and often > PatBateman 01/25/2018 at 16:13

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High-alpha stocks gonna...high alpha.

Tesla is the cryptocurrency of the car world. Even if the fundamentals are there, nobody is really trading on them.

BaconSandwich is tasty. > Arrivederci 01/25/2018 at 16:14

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First rule of business: buy low, sell high.

PatBateman > TorqueToYield 01/25/2018 at 16:22

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One piece of one type of plane is one thing. A possible mid-term manufacturing bottleneck for the main component on all of their vehicles is something different.

And it’s not manufacturing processes that should be concerning; it’s the effect on future deliveries/income from the problem.

PatBateman > Ash78, voting early and often 01/25/2018 at 16:27

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High Beta. Alpha is the returns over the expected returns in an asset class/over a portfolio’s standard deviation.

Beta is the volatility measurement for an individual stock/investment.

Ash78, voting early and often > PatBateman 01/25/2018 at 16:32

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That’s what I meant, d’oh.

Stupid seekingalpha website burrowing in my head...

TorqueToYield > PatBateman 01/25/2018 at 17:08

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Seems like they have some kinks to work out in the automated battery assembly so they’re doing manual assembly for a bit. Strikes me as a big load of nothing. Automated machinery breaks/malfunctions/errors out and then there’s a big rush to find people to assemble by hand - this happens all the time in every industry. It normally just doesn’t get leaked to the media because people don’t care.

The battery testing bit is more concerning, but also more rumor circle jerk than actual fact.

It’s pretty telling that people are salivating over all these little details and production delays like they matter. The production schedule wasn’t real to begin with and everybody knew it, it’s priced in. Backlog isn’t a bad thing.

PatBateman > Ash78, voting early and often 01/25/2018 at 18:30

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How DARE you not get finance industry-specific terms correct!!!

PatBateman > TorqueToYield 01/25/2018 at 18:37

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The problem is that Tesla is consistently missing self-imposed targets for both production and unit delivery. This isn’t a problem with any other publicly-traded large cap car maker. If it happened all the time to this magnitude, Ford, GM, Toyota, and FCA would all be held to the fire. I don’t like how Tesla is getting a pass for consistent underperformance and delays. They wanted to be a mass-producing auto manufacturer, and the company isn’t performing up to anyone’s expectations (including their own).

Learning curves can kill a company, especially one in Tesla’s position.

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > PatBateman 01/25/2018 at 22:49

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I’m dumbfounded Goldman sachs isn’t pounding on the door to find out whats really going on. they only had 250 cars q3 and totaled 2000 last year so they’re only at @150 a week. If all their plans had them recouping the money from 5k carsa week they must be way off track finacially.

Add in extra overhead from panasonic they must be in losing money on each sold.  

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > TorqueToYield 01/25/2018 at 23:01

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“this happens all the time in every industry.” I disagree

Any production line worth its salt would shut down and fix.

Also all this assembly by hand has to be killing their unit costs, which is a major deal as they are hemorhaging cash. they went through 4 bil by end of q3 with only 3.2 on hand. unless they start making a profit on units they’ll run out by august

PatBateman > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas 01/26/2018 at 06:58

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A lot of the large investment firms have lowered their future target prices on the stock, even the ones that have been extremely bullish until very recently. Morgan Stanley was one that had the stock going through the moon, but then pulled back on their financial estimates drastically. The reason for those new negative forecasts were production issues/bottlenecks, battery supplies, and the corresponding reduction in expected deliveries for 2018 (and possibly beyond). The firms haven’t kept these changes in outlook private, but very few people outside of the finance industry have paid attention to it, or they just ignore it because TSLA is almost a cult stock and can the company can do no wrong in their eyes.

(SOURCE/DISCLAIMER: I work for a large investment firm and read our analyses on the auto industry, I am not giving advice as to whether to buy the stock or not, and I am only quoting publicly-released data.)

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > PatBateman 01/27/2018 at 01:03

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When you add in the semi, new roadster, and as the S is already 6 years old a redesign will be needed soon, I can’t see how they plan on leveling off the cash burn. Add in a second plant for the 3 as NUMMI being maxed out.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > PatBateman 03/20/2018 at 21:05

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I bought $800 worth of stock the day after they went public and that stock is now worth over $5k. I wish I’d invested more. It’s the only stock I’ve every purchased.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > PatBateman 03/20/2018 at 21:07

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Cult stock. I like the term. Tesla is one of the few things to feel good about in Murica these days, so please don’t harsh my mellow.

PatBateman > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 03/20/2018 at 21:24

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LOL I understand, but here’s something to remember about stocks: your gains are nothing until realized.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > PatBateman 03/20/2018 at 22:28

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If I were rich, I’d have to know a lot more about money.